Sources & method
Public sources only. No customer data. Series marked "Demo values" are not connected to their source yet.
Series in use
Source: ECB statistics.
Data: GDELT Project (https://www.gdeltproject.org/).
Source: SEC EDGAR filings.
Source: Eurostat (sts_inpp_m). Calculations by OHT Pulse. Eurostat is not responsible for the processing.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Global Supply Chain Pressure Index.
Source: FAO Food Price Index.
Source: Eurostat (sts_inpp_m). Calculations by OHT Pulse. Eurostat is not responsible for the processing.
Source: Eurostat (sts_inpp_m). Calculations by OHT Pulse. Eurostat is not responsible for the processing.
Source: Eurostat (sts_inpp_m). Calculations by OHT Pulse. Eurostat is not responsible for the processing.
Source: Eurostat, sts_inppd_m (C22.11), © European Union
Monthly composite of published carrier spot rates and market assessments, compiled by OHT Pulse.
Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet).
Source: Eurostat, sts_inpr_m (C28.3), © European Union
Source: CEMA – European Agricultural Machinery
Monthly tractor registrations entered by OHT Pulse from CEMA, VDMA or AEA publications.
Monthly regional industrial market assessment, compiled by OHT Pulse.
Monthly regional steel market assessment, compiled by OHT Pulse.
Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet).
Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet).
Source: ECB statistics.
Other series in the register (World Bank coal and gas, NY Fed GSCPI, FAO, Eurostat Comext, UN Comtrade, FRED backup) are awaiting licence review and are not used. Drewry and Open-Meteo are blocked.
Method
- Only approved sources
- Each series has a licence status: ok, verify or blocked. Only ok series are used in the app, the score, the tools and the brief. Every number comes from the database. A language model may only word sentences.
- Metrics
- For each series we calculate the change over 30 days, 90 days and 12 months, and a z-score: how unusual the latest 12-month change is versus the last 10 years.
- Score
- Each driver scores 0 (buyer's market) to 100 (seller's market): 50 + 15 × z-score + 2 × 90-day change. Events: 50, plus 8 per seller-friendly and minus 8 per buyer-friendly approved event in 90 days. The Pulse is the weighted average of live drivers. 0-33 Buyer's market, 34-66 Balanced, 67-100 Seller's market.
- Confidence
- Share of driver weight with approved data, reduced when drivers disagree. Under 50%, or fewer than 4 live drivers, the score is shown as an early signal.
- Price lag
- Cross-correlation between the 12-month change in tyre makers' input costs and US tyre producer prices (BLS) at lags of 0-12 months. We show the best lag, the correlation and the number of months.
- Tools model
- Linear regression of the 12-month change in US tyre producer prices on lagged 12-month changes in natural rubber, Brent oil and EUR/USD. We show R² and the number of observations, and say so when the model is weak.
- Backtest
- Historical runs of the score are labelled Backtest and use the same rules as today.
- Missing or failed data
- Drivers without approved data are hidden. When a source fails, we keep the last value and mark it Stale.
- Credits
- Sources are credited in text, per series. Logos and emblems of data providers, including the BLS emblem, are not used.
| Raw materials | 30% |
| Tyre prices (proxy) | 20% |
| Supply chain | 15% |
| Demand | 15% |
| Trade | 10% |
| Manufacturers & events | 10% |